Blog : Ragazou

Mahmood Karimi-Hakak, a 60-year-old Muslim who holds dual Iranian and American citizenship and last visited Iran in 2007, arrived in Israel as a Fulbright scholar last month at the invitation of Tel Aviv University.

He plans to remain in Israel for the next five months, teaching theatre and social studies at Tel Aviv University and working with Israelis and Palestinians on stage productions.

Two weeks ago, Karimi-Hakak ? a pro fessor of creative arts at Siena Col lege in Albany, N.Y. ? delivered a lecture at Haifa University in which he is reported to have said, ?If the situation [in Iran] remains as it is today, by the end of 2010, the regime in Iran will be re placed.?

Iran, governed by hard-line Islamists since the downfall of the pro-western Pahlavi monarchy in 1979, has been con vulsed by street violence since last June's disputed general election.

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was first elected in 2005, claim ed victory, but his opponents in the Green Movement cried foul, saying the election was rigged.  

?He stole the election,? declared Ka rimi-Hakak in a telephone interview from Israel.

Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, sided with Ahmadenijad, who has repeatedly called for Israel's destruc tion, denied the Holocaust and fended off western demands to halt its mil itarized nuclear program.

Certain that the election was a blatant exercise in fraud, Iranian protesters took to the streets in nationwide demonstrations, calling for fresh elections and reforms. The protests have been met by a harsh response from the government.

Karimi-Hakak describes the  Iranian regime as dictatorial and theocratic and believes that non-violent demonstrators acting on behalf of the opposition Green Movement ? which seeks evolutionary rather than revolutionary chan ges ? can bring it to its knees before year's end.

?This regime has to go,? he said.

By his estimate, demonstrators are capable of dislodging the powers-that-be in Iran ? namely Khamenei and Ahmad inejad, as well as the Revolutionary Guards that support them.

?The Iranian regime has already cracked from within,? he claimed. ?A great part of the army, Revolutionary Guards and the clergy have already shown signs of support for the Green Movement.?

But he warned that western intervention in Iran, in the form of an Israeli or U.S. strike on its underground nuclear facilities, would be counter-productive and strength en the forces of repression.

As he put it at Haifa University, ?An Israeli attack would only unite the Iran ian people and enable the government to blame a ?foreign enemy' for Iran's mismanagement problems, so I implore you not to intervene.?

Karimi-Hakak cited a precedent to buttress his belief that external threats prompt Iranians to rally around their government. In 1980, Iraq invaded Iran, touching off a protracted war that caused  hundreds of thousands of casualties and united Iranians.

?Ahmadinejad wants a war so that he can consolidate his hold on power and destroy the opposition,? he said. ?I am convinced that the heads of the government in Iran pray every day for an Israeli attack that would reunite the people against an external enemy.?

In his judgment, a new Iranian government would realign Iran's foreign policy. ?It would have friendly relations with all countries in the Middle East, including Israel, and all the great powers.?

It would also cancel Iran's military-oriented nuclear program which, he said, isn't needed. But Iran, he add ed, has a right to peaceful nuclear en ergy.

Karimi-Hakak claims that the majority of Iranians aren't anti-Israel and would welcome a resumption of Iran's diplomatic relations with the Jewish state. Iran severed ties with Israel in 1979, shortly after Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, the Shah, was forced into exile.

Nor do most Iranians buy into Ahmadinejad's claim that the Holocaust is a hoax. ?They categorically do not believe that,? he said.

No supporter of the Shah, Karimi-Hakak supported the Islamic revolution on the grounds that it would usher in a period of a dem ocracy.

?The first constitution after 1979 was extremely democratic. But in the past 20 years, Iran has shifted away from dem ocracy,? said Karimi-Hakak, an advocate of representative government.

He immigrated to the United States in 1976 to continue his stu dies in theatre. Returning in 1992, he lived in Iran until 1999. He left yet again after com ing under in vestigation for a Shakes peare play he had produced without official approval.

He doubts whether broad economic sanctions will work against Iran, saying that previous United Nations sanctions have bolstered Iran's leadership while hurting ordinary Iranians. He calls for sanctions that will limit the international mobility of Iran's lea ders and freeze their overseas bank accounts.

After a month in Israel, he has reach ed the conclusion that it's a very complex, democratic country whose Arab minority isn't necessarily treated equally.

?The people I'have met in Israel are wonderful and very friendly,? he observed. ?They desire peace and tranquility.? But he's not convinced that the present Israeli government is in touch with their feelings and acts on their desires.

He admits he was hesitant to visit Israel. ?I thought about it for a year, but I went because one should face the ?en emy' and carry on a dialogue with such people.?

In fact, Karimi-Hakak doesn't regard Israel or Israelis as enemies.

?I don't think anyone is our enemy. It is governments that perpetuate animosity between countries. This animos ity is not shared by Israelis and Iranians, who have lived in brotherhood.?